Eastafo

Eastafo


Russia re-emerged on the Libya scene pronouncing no specific agenda and making incoherent statements about the desired endgame as the Libyan civil war erupted. Hypothetically, Russian military aid and diplomatic support for Haftar could have resulted in the capture of Tripoli by his Libyan National Army, marking the end of the Libyan Political Agreement. Given failed Soviet attempts to set up a military presence in Egypt and Libya, Russia may finally revisit this idea. Having used Syria to rebuild its image as a regional power, Russia is faced with the challenge of how to balance its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, neither of which is a true ally for Moscow. The bottom line is that hard power is a crisis management tool but not an agenda setting one. In the Middle East, Moscow seeks to reinforce its influence there as well as offset the burden upon the Russian federal budget associated with the expenses of the Syrian campaign. Moscow hosted representatives of the Tripoli government as well as representatives from Misrata, the two major power centres in Libya.

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Eastafo. By Yuri Barman.

Eastafo


Russia re-emerged on the Libya scene pronouncing no specific agenda and making incoherent statements about the desired endgame as the Libyan civil war erupted. Hypothetically, Russian military aid and diplomatic support for Haftar could have resulted in the capture of Tripoli by his Libyan National Army, marking the end of the Libyan Political Agreement. Given failed Soviet attempts to set up a military presence in Egypt and Libya, Russia may finally revisit this idea. Having used Syria to rebuild its image as a regional power, Russia is faced with the challenge of how to balance its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, neither of which is a true ally for Moscow. The bottom line is that hard power is a crisis management tool but not an agenda setting one. In the Middle East, Moscow seeks to reinforce its influence there as well as offset the burden upon the Russian federal budget associated with the expenses of the Syrian campaign. Moscow hosted representatives of the Tripoli government as well as representatives from Misrata, the two major power centres in Libya. Eastafo

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5 thoughts on “Eastafo”

  1. Maintaining the image of a great power in the Middle East will require Russia to invest diplomatically and financially in the resolution of other crises, such as the Libyan war and the Israeli-Palestinian issue. The first steps in this direction could be the creation of demilitarised zones, the prohibition of destabilising accumulations of conventional weapons including anti-missile weapons , and a balanced reduction of armed forces by the main military powers in the region and neighbouring countries. In the Middle East, Moscow seeks to reinforce its influence there as well as offset the burden upon the Russian federal budget associated with the expenses of the Syrian campaign.

  2. Russia re-emerged on the Libya scene pronouncing no specific agenda and making incoherent statements about the desired endgame as the Libyan civil war erupted. Along with the deployment of the S air-defence system to Syria in November and to Crimea, in August , the Russian naval group in the eastern Mediterranean is equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles and P Onyx anti-ship missiles, which create an added advantage against a potential enemy. Given failed Soviet attempts to set up a military presence in Egypt and Libya, Russia may finally revisit this idea.

  3. Moscow hosted representatives of the Tripoli government as well as representatives from Misrata, the two major power centres in Libya.

  4. First, geopolitically, the fall of Asad would mean humiliation for Russia, his main global ally, and would deprive Moscow of a springboard to the rest of the Middle East.

  5. Given failed Soviet attempts to set up a military presence in Egypt and Libya, Russia may finally revisit this idea. Moscow has created a heavily guarded perimeter in the eastern Mediterranean by deploying air defence capabilities to Syria, complementing its permanent naval force in those waters. Moscow has significantly stepped up diplomatic engagement with each of these states over the past twenty years since the Soviet collapse.

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